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Sectoral shocks and economic fluctuations

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Published by Administrator in Unidad de Investigaciones Económicas, Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Puerto Rico, Recinto de Río Piedras

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    • Unidad de Investigaciones Económicas, Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Puerto Rico, Recinto de Río Piedras


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      • Includes bibliographical references (p. 36-38).Preface in Spanish.

        StatementUnidad de Investigaciones Económicas, Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Puerto Rico, Recinto de Río Piedras
        PublishersUnidad de Investigaciones Económicas, Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Puerto Rico, Recinto de Río Piedras
        Classifications
        LC Classifications1992
        The Physical Object
        Paginationxvi, 131 p. :
        Number of Pages98
        ID Numbers
        ISBN 10nodata
        Series
        1
        2núm. 62
        3Serie de ensayos y monografías ;

        nodata File Size: 4MB.


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I owe a special note of gratitude to Michele Boldrin for his encouragement and many critical comments. A version of the model with relatively more important sectoral shocks results in a sizeable decline in the cyclicality of labor productivity and is consistent with changes in several other business cycle moments observed in the data. Abstract A principal components decomposition of sectoral IP data reveals that the contribution of aggregate shocks to the variance of aggregate output Sectoral shocks and economic fluctuations from about 70 percent in the period 1967—1983 to about 30 percent after 1983.

" American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 9 4 : 254-80. Limited interaction, characterized by a sparse intermediate input-use matrix, reduces substitution possibilities among intermediate inputs which strengthens comovement in sectoral value-added and leads to a postponement of the law of large numbers in the variance of aggregate value-added.

L14 Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation; Networks. All errors are, of course, my own. " American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 10 1 : 119-48. "The Relative Importance of Aggregate and Sectoral Shocks and the Changing Nature of Economic Fluctuations. I thank Susanto Basu, Larry Christiano, Marty Eichenbaum, Jon Faust, John Fernald, Jonas Fisher, Anna Horvath, Nati Krivatsy, Chad Jones, Andrew Levin, Prakash Loungani, Kiminori Matsuyama, Joseph Mattey, Wolfgang Pesendorfer, John Shea, Mark Watson, and seminar participants at the Federal Reserve Board, International Division, Northwestern, Cornell, Carnegie Mellon, University of Chicago GSB, Stanford, UCSD, Boston University, Dartmouth, Yale, Wharton, Pompeu Fabra, and the Sectoral shocks and economic fluctuations Summer 1995 Economics Fluctuations Conference.

Abstract I quantify the contribution of sectoral shocks to business cycle fluctuations in aggregate output. E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity• Building on Horvath, 1998, Review of Economic Dynamics 1, 781—808, which establishes the theoretical foundation for the relevance of limited interaction in the context of a stylized multisector model, this paper specifies a more general multisector model calibrated to the US 2-digit Standard Industrial Code economy.

Simulations prove the model is able to match empirical reality as closely as standard one-sector business cycle models without relying on aggregate shocks.

Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations

We develop an "islands" model with two sectors and costly labor reallocation to investigate how this change in the relative importance of shocks alters business cycle moments. This paper presents a multisector dynamic general equilibrium model of business cycles with a distinctive feature: aggregate fluctuations are driven by independent sectoral shocks. These complementarities indicate that industry-specific shocks are substantially more important than previously thought, accounting for at least half of aggregate volatility.

Next article in issue Financial support from the Sloan Foundation and National Science Foundation SBR-9507978 is gratefully acknowledged. "How Important Are Sectoral Shocks? The chief virtue of this model is that reliance on implausible aggregate shocks is not necessary to capture the qualitative features of macroeconomic fluctuations.

J24 Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity.